Date: December 25th, 2024
Location: Near Aktau Airport, Kazakhstan
Aircraft: Embraer ERJ-190, registration 4K-AZ65
Operator: Azerbaijan Airlines
Flight Number: J2-8243
Route: Baku, Azerbaijan (GYD) to Grozny, Russia (GRV)
Occupants: 62 passengers, 5 crew
Survivors: 29 (28 hospitalized, 11 with serious injuries)
Fatalities: 38
Damage: Aircraft destroyed
Incident Summary
On December 25th, Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243, an Embraer E190 operating from Baku to Grozny, diverted to Aktau, Kazakhstan, due to adverse weather conditions at Grozny. The aircraft subsequently attempted to divert to Makhachkala, Russia, but aborted its approach there due to fog before re-diverting to Aktau. During its final approach to Aktau’s Runway 11, the aircraft lost altitude, impacted terrain approximately 3km (1.6nm) short of the runway in a nose-down attitude, and caught fire.
Rescue operations successfully evacuated 29 survivors, including all four cabin crew. Tragically, 38 lives were lost, including both flight crew. The crash site showed signs of substantial structural damage, with visible holes in the aircraft’s vertical stabilizer raising questions about possible external influences.
Sequence of Events
1. Initial Diversion to Aktau:
• Poor weather conditions at Grozny prompted the crew to divert to Aktau, a nearby alternate airport.
2. Failed Attempt at Makhachkala:
• The crew subsequently diverted to Makhachkala, Russia, but abandoned the approach due to fog and returned to Aktau.
3. Final Approach to Aktau:
• The crew declared an emergency during their approach to Runway 11 at Aktau. ADS-B data and preliminary reports suggest difficulties with the aircraft’s descent control during the final phase.
4. Impact:
• The aircraft impacted terrain approximately 3km from the runway in a nose-down attitude, likely attempting a landing. A fire broke out immediately after impact.
Initial Observations
1. Weather Conditions:
• Poor visibility, fog, and adverse weather were reported at Grozny and Makhachkala, contributing to the multiple diversions.
2. Aircraft Condition:
• The Embraer E190, registration 4K-AZ65, had been reported airworthy. There were no prior indications of mechanical failure during earlier phases of the flight.
3. Crew Challenges:
• The crew faced significant operational challenges due to multiple diversions and difficult weather conditions. This may have increased pilot workload, impacting decision-making and aircraft handling.
4. Crash Site Observations:
• The aircraft was found with visible holes in the vertical stabilizer, prompting speculation about external interference. However, there is no conclusive evidence at this time.
Ongoing Investigation
Kazakhstan’s AAIID is leading the investigation, supported by accident investigators from Azerbaijan and Brazil’s CENIPA (as the manufacturer of the Embraer aircraft). Key areas of focus include:
• Flight Data Analysis:
• Recovery of the black boxes (FDR and CVR) will provide crucial insights into the aircraft’s performance and crew actions.
• Weather Impact:
• Meteorological conditions and their influence on the crew’s decisions and aircraft handling are under review.
• Structural Analysis:
• Damage to the vertical stabilizer and fuselage, including visible holes, is being analyzed for possible external causes.
• GPS and Radar Data:
• GPS jamming and radar spoofing in the region are complicating flight path reconstruction and analysis.
Airline Statement
Azerbaijan Airlines has stated that preliminary data suggest external physical and technical impacts may have played a role in the incident. This claim remains unsubstantiated and is subject to further investigation.
Speculative Theories
Some unverified reports allege potential external interference, including:
• Missile Strike:
• Holes in the tail are hypothesized to be caused by shrapnel, raising suspicions of an accidental or intentional shootdown.
• GPS Jamming:
• Disrupted navigation due to GPS interference in the region may have contributed to the aircraft’s descent issues.
Both theories remain speculative and are not supported by current evidence.
Rescue and Casualties
1. Survivors:
• 29 individuals were rescued alive, including all cabin crew. Of these, 28 are hospitalized, with 11 in serious but stable condition.
2. Fatalities:
• Tragically, 38 lives were lost, including both pilots. Recovery of victims’ remains is ongoing.
Preliminary Recommendations
1. Weather Diversion Protocols:
• Review and enhance procedures for managing diversions during severe weather.
2. Navigation System Resilience:
• Investigate measures to mitigate the impact of GPS jamming or interference on flight operations.
3. Emergency Landing Training:
• Provide additional training for pilots on handling emergency landings under adverse conditions.
Conclusion
The tragic loss of Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 underscores the complexities of flight operations in adverse weather and geopolitically sensitive regions. A thorough investigation is necessary to uncover the root causes and prevent future occurrences.
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Our investigation reports are based on all the evidence and facts we have at the time of writing and posting. We apologise if any details are missed or are not fully accurate.
